Methodological Aspects of the Study of the Resource Potential of Pension Provision as an Object of Modeling and Forecasting


  • Eduard Ya. Vafin PhD, Associate Professor, Manager of the Department of the Pension Fund of Russia in the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia
  • Sergey V. Kiselev Kazan (Volga Region) Federal University



The article deals with the methodological aspects of the study of the resource potential of pension provision as an object of modeling and forecasting. It is noted that the resource potential, the parameters of its condition become factors in the development of a promising state policy for the development of the pension system, and the use of a systematic approach is a necessary step in strategic analysis, modeling and long-term forecasting. The position is substantiated that the functioning of the pension system in difficult political, socio-economic and demographic conditions, the urgent need to solve a set of problems for the implementation of the target function of the pension system actualizes the need to use a set of modeling and forecasting methods, both pension obligations and insurance premiums. The content characteristics of the resource potential of pension provision as an object of modeling are disclosed, including its state, behavior, individuality, boundaries of the object, which serve as initial information in the construction and study of models. The levels of relations and connections of the resource potential, which unite spatial and temporal characteristics, are revealed. The conceptual scheme of the methodology for forecasting the resource potential of the state pension system is substantiated and the methodological principles for forecasting the potential of pension resources are formulated.


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